Middle East Crisis and Fertilizers: Take Measures to Ensure Stable Food Supply Is Not Threatened

Editorial

15:24 JST, May 27, 2026

Amid heightened concerns over the supply of naphtha, or crude gasoline, due to the Middle East crisis, worry is also spreading regarding the stable procurement of fertilizers, which are essential for agriculture. The government must map out measures to prevent disruptions.

The three essential components of fertilizers are nitrogen, phosphoric acid and potassium. Japan relies almost entirely on imports from countries such as China and Canada.

Among them, the uncertainty over the supply of urea — a nitrogen-based fertilizer essential for promoting leaf and stem growth — is increasing. This is because natural gas is used as the main raw material in producing urea, and Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Oman account for over 30% of global exports.

Japan imports a little over 70% of its urea from Malaysia. Since Japan’s dependence on the Middle East is low, it is said that the nation’s immediate supply needs are being met for the present.

However, the outlook of the situation in Iran is difficult to predict. To prevent future disruptions to agricultural production, the government needs to continue its efforts to ensure stable procurement through such means as urging the Malaysian side to enter into long-term contracts.

Another cause for concern is that international purchase prices are rising amid fierce competition for fertilizers, which is impacting domestic prices. The National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations (Zen-Noh) announced a 14.5% price increase for imported urea supplied to agricultural cooperatives nationwide for the period from June to October.

Zen-Noh reviews wholesale prices twice a year, in spring and autumn. A significant price hike for the period from November to May next year appears inevitable. If this leads to rising food prices, the impact on the economy will be even greater.

Fertilizers reach producers through a complex route involving Zen-Noh and trading companies — both of which procure raw materials — manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers.

Disruptions in distribution caused by hoarding or stockpiling in anticipation of price hikes must be avoided. It is crucial for the government to strongly urge relevant businesses to exercise restraint.

The series of price hikes — including for plastic greenhouses and plastic sheeting used to cover field ridges to suppress weed growth — as a result of the disruption of the supply of naphtha is also a blow to farmers. The increased burden of fuel costs themselves is likewise putting pressure on farming businesses.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi intends to submit a supplementary budget proposal for fiscal 2026, totaling over ¥3 trillion, to the Diet as early as next week to respond to the situation in the Middle East.

The budget centers on subsidies for electricity and gas rates, with deficit-financing government bonds serving as the source of funding. To ensure a swift response, the government has likely prioritized support for households.

If the turmoil involving Iran persists, the plight of farmers is expected to worsen. The stable supply of food must not be threatened. The government should closely monitor the situation and then consider measures to help farmers procure necessary funds, among other steps.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, May 27, 2026)